Election Night 2024

3:28 (ET)

“This will truly be the golden age of America”

Watch Trump’s victory speech below:

2:56 (ET)

The world stands stunned as Trump makes an incredible comeback.

2:52 (ET)

President to-be Donald Trump declares a win ‘like never seen before’ as he breaks silence on the American election results.

2:50 (ET)

“We are the party of common sense”

Trump declares victory in the American election.

2:47 (ET)

In his victorious address to the nation, Trump thanks the hardworking Americans that form the “heart and soul” of America.

2:43 (ET)

Donald Trump is hopeful of victory as he addresses his supporters. He is projected to have won Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Georgia – three key swing states.
Trump is ahead in the other four states and now looks on course for a victory.
The Republicans are also projected to have won the Senate.

1:42 (ET)

Kamala Harris’ watchparty reactions:

1:42 (ET)

Pennsylvania is just being counted, an important swing state with a large portion of electoral college votes. Trump needs 270 to win and is presently at 240. We are hoping to have a result within the next two hours. Stay tuned.

1:31 (ET)

A Trump win is imminent.

1:20 (ET)

Young Turks are very upset.

1:07 (ET)

Trump now at >95% change of victory, according to New York Times.

00:55 (ET)

Harris has confirmed her speech has been cancelled.

00:45 (ET)

Crowds leaving Kamala’s watch party.

00:35 (ET)

Steven Edginton reporting that Democrats are dispirited at watch parties.

00:33 (ET)

Courage Media first speculated that affluent Americans have become disenchanted with Democrats’ DEI-imposed de-growth. Wealthy people hate intentional poverty. The shift in Loudon County presages a shift in places like Orange County.

This is even likelier given the involvement of Elon Musk in Trump’s campaign, who tech-heavy California can’t help but admire.

But if wealthy West-coast districts match the results of wealthy East-coast districts, then Orange County democrats can kiss their seats goodbye!

00:23 (ET)

Harris is down in four key counties in Georgia: Sky

00:14 (ET)

Trump leading in Arab majority Dearborn, Michigan

00:11 (ET)

Polymarket odds are 97% for Trump

00:09 (ET)

Decisive evidence that nominating someone on the basis of her race and sex might not be the best way to win.

00:01 (ET)

Trump projected to win Maine

23:58 (ET)

Trump is currently 10/1 on to win the popular vote according to Sky Bet.

23:43 (ET)

“Bitcoin surges above $75,000 to record high as crypto investors bet on Trump win”, the FT reports.

23:33 (ET)

NYT puts Trump at 90% chance of winning the election.

23:27 (ET)

Fox are reporting that the Harris campaign are no longer speaking to the media.

23:04 (ET)

NYT now puts Trump 1+ in the national popular vote

23:04 (ET)

Donald Trump is up to 93% likely to win the Presidency, and 80% likely to win the popular vote, according to Polymarket.

22:54 (ET)

NYT puts Trump at 88% chance of victory

22:38 (ET)

Trump wins Georgia

22:35 (ET)

While tonight’s result is no certainty, it appears that the Democrats’ last hope—some good early returns in the Midwest—are dwindling asymptotically.

Just half an hour ago, election mavens no less eminent than James Carville and Frank Luntz forecasted a long night and narrow results.

Of course, nothing is certain.

But the markets have given up on Harris. Her scores on Polymarket have dropped below 10%. Her erstwhile boosters at Kalshi—recently the Democrats’ last solid boosters—have dropped her chances to 18%.

18% isn’t 0%, as Nate Silver showed in 2016.

But it’s looking very, very good for Trump.

22:33 (ET)

Trump at 89% in Polymarket

22:30 (ET)

NYT gives Trump 80% chance of winning with 296 electoral votes

22:16 (ET)

Trump wins Iowa

22:16 (ET)

NYT now estimates Trump will win the popular vote

22:01 (ET)

MONTANA: Projected for TRUMP

(4 votes)

UTAH: Projected for TRUMP

(6 votes)

21:59 (ET)

Republicans now 98% favorites to take the Senate.

21:52 (ET)

Frank Luntz and James Carville both reporting it will be a late night.

21:51 (ET)

NYT puts Trump ahead in Pennsylvania and Michigan.

21:42 (ET)

NYT flips Wisconsin into the Trump column.

21:39 (ET)

Trump is approaching 80% likelihood to win the Presidency on Polymarket.

21:38 (ET)

New York Times predicting a 69% chance of victory for Trump.

21:37 (ET)

NYT now narrowly favours Trump to win Michigan.

21:35 (ET)

Striking demographic data from Reuters.

21:31 (ET)

NEW YORK: Projected for HARRIS

(28 votes)

21:30 (ET)

RHODE ISLAND: Projected for HARRIS

(4 votes)

21:29 (ET)

The NYT now puts the election in Lean Trump territory.

21:28 (ET)

Trump +7 among Pennsylvania voters who believe democracy is under threat.

21:26 (ET)

LOUISIANA: Projected for TRUMP

(8 votes)

21:24 (ET)

NBC Exit poll puts Trump ahead among Michigan voters under 30.

21:18 (ET)

Trump forecast to win Ohio by 9 points.

21:14 (ET)

NYT has shifted Michigan from leaning Harris to toss-up.

21:12 (ET)

DELAWARE: Projected for HARRIS

(3 votes)

21:09 (ET)

Trump underperforming in some counties in Ohio, similar to Indiana.

This indicates that it isn’t over. Not coincidentally, this news corresponds to an arrest in Harris’ slide in Polymarket. It isn’t over.

21:02 (ET)

TEXAS: Projected for TRUMP

(40 votes)

NORTH DAKOTA: Projected for TRUMP

(3 votes)

SOUTH DAKOTA: Projected for TRUMP

(3 votes)

WYOMING: Projected for TRUMP

(3 votes)

20:58 (ET)

Harris has won New Hampshire, Illinois, and Virginia, according to Decision Desk.

20:53 (ET)

I’ve just looked at 2004 crosstabs, the only other time a GOP presidential candidate has gotten close to winning Latino men. Then, George W Bush won 43%.

If Luntz is right, this is historic.

20:51 (ET)

Polymarket chances of Trump win for the coastal South:

Florida: 100% Trump
Georgia: 89% Trump
South Carolina: 100% Trump
North Carolina: 85% Trump
Virginia: 15% Trump

That Virginia even has a chance of going GOP is huge.

20:49 (ET)

Decision Desk HQ gives Trump a 73% chance of winning North Carolina.

20:48 (ET)

Polymarket update…

20:46 (ET)

NYT electoral college estimate puts Trump above 270.

20:44 (ET)

Republicans have picked up the West Virginia Senate seat vacated by Joe Manchin.

20:43 (ET)

Frank Luntz is one of the most reputable pollsters in the nation, and is no fan of President Trump. When he reports that Latinos are breaking for Trump, it’s not because that gives him any joy.

20:33 (ET)

NBC puts Trump ahead among Georgia independents by 11 points.

20:31 (ET)

ARKANSAS: Projected for TRUMP

(6 votes)

20:31 (ET)

SOUTH CAROLINA: Projected for TRUMP

(9 votes)

20:30 (ET)

Polymarket update…

20:28 (ET)

NBC exit poll puts Trump 6 points ahead among Pennsylvania independents.

20:21 (ET)

With 32% of the vote in, Trump is only 2% behind in Virginia.

20:20 (ET)

Democrats were relying on abortion to carry them over the line. It was their big winning issue. Mounting evidence that this strategy failed.

20:18 (ET)

The governor is Florida is reporting that Floridians have rejected both the radically pro-abortion amendment and the pro-marijuana amendment.

Killing babies and selling drugs not the winning issues Democrats were hoping would distract voters from their records.

20:16 (ET)

The Economist has tabulated county data compared to 2020 in all counties where 97%+ of votes have been counted.

20:14 (ET)

Harris really struggling in NH – quickly turning into a bloodbath.

20:11 (ET)

FOCUS ON LOUDOUN COUNTY

Loudoun County is among the wealthiest, most suburban, and most bureaucratic populations in the world. The median household income there in 2020 was $147,000. It has doubtless increased a great deal since then.

This may be indicative of a broader shift of the American upper classes back towards the GOP. Musk’s lead, perhaps?

Loudoun county was the epicenter of the anti-woke education backlash that Republicans governor Glenn Youngkin rode to power in 2022.

20:00 (ET)

MASSACHUSETTS: Projected for HARRIS

(11 votes)

20:00 (ET)

MISSOURI: Projected for TRUMP

(10 votes)

20:00 (ET)

MARYLAND: Projected for HARRIS

(10 votes)

20:00 (ET)

DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA: Projected for HARRIS

(3 votes)

20:00 (ET)

TENNESSEE: Projected for TRUMP

(11 votes)

20:00 (ET)

OKLAHOMA: Projected for TRUMP

(7 votes)

20:00 (ET)

ALABAMA: Projected for TRUMP

(9 votes)

20:00 (ET)

FLORIDA: Projected for TRUMP

(30 votes)

19:57 (ET)

Loudoun County in Virginia has swung right by 4%. With 95% of the vote in, Harris has won Loudoun with 57% of the vote, down from 61% in 2020.

19:53 (ET)

Donald Trump has declared victory in West Virginia.

19:49 (ET)

Markets are starting to lose faith in Harris.

19:43 (ET)

Fox has called the North Carolina gubernatorial race for Democrats Josh Stein.

19:41 (ET)

Results are starting to pour in for North Carolina. Republican’s gubernatorial candidate Mark Robinson, who has been plagued by controversy, is trailing Trump by over 10 points.

19:39 (ET)

CNN have reported that their exit poll shows a 20 point swing among independents toward Trump since 2020.

19:34 (ET)

Trump currently winning Georgia by 17 points, with 8% in.

19:30 (ET)

WEST VIRGINIA: Projected for TRUMP

(4 votes)

19:25 (ET)

If Trump wins Arizona, he’d only need Pennsylvania, Michigan, or Wisconsin.

19:15 (ET)

CNN just reported that Trump is winning independents 54 to 43 in Georgia.

If this is true, it is mathematically impossible for the Democrats to win this major swing state.

Hard to know whether CNN is right, but their dejected tone is indicative. Remember: if the solid South holds, the Democrats have to sweep every single Midwestern swing state.

Remember: swing states are not probabilistically independent. They are correlated. Georgia has a lot of affluent suburban voters, as well as lots of rural whites and urban blacks! It’s a southern Michigan.

19:11 (ET)

Trump and Harris tied in Duval county, Florida, with the early vote in.

Biden won that county by 4%.

Note that Biden won the EARLY vote by a very wide margin.

The Democrats are collapsing in Florida.

19:06 (ET)

INDIANA: Projected for TRUMP

(11 votes)

19:01 (ET)

VERMONT: Projected for HARRIS

(3 votes)

19:01 (ET)

KENTUCKY: Projected for TRUMP

(8 votes)

19:00 (ET)

Polls have closed in Florida, Georgia, Virginia and South Carolina. Trump enjoys a commanding lead in Florida.

18:52 (ET)

Philadelphia officials reject Trump’s “talk of massive cheating” comment. District Attorney Larry Krasner has issued a statement countering Trump’s claim.

18:35 (ET)

The final poll in Georgia will not close until 19:45 (ET).

18:34 (ET)

Data in Florida tells a different story. Republicans are voting there in droves. They’re winning counties to the LEFT of Georgia.

The closest cognate so far (and it’s very early) is to 2022, where Republicans got terribly excited early on because of unprecedented success in Florida, only to awaken to a mediocre morning.

18:29 (ET)

Don’t pay too much attention to these very early results:

Kentucky starting to come in. With Trump at 65%, it’s our first hard data for the night. In 2020, he was at 62%.

However, this is going off 2% of a moderately unrepresentative state. It could be a long time before we have anything substantive.

18:17 (ET)

If the NBC exit polls are right, Trump is in trouble. Look at this result in Pennsylvania:

NBC PENNSYLVANIA – NBC EXIT POLL

“Is Harris too extreme?”

Yes: 49%
No: 49%

There are a large number of voters who are dissatisfied with both candidates. Roughly 10%. If that many voters are NOT saying that Kamala is too extreme, then it’s likely that she has won PA. When we thought things were roughly tied there we thought so because a majority of voters thought both candidates were too extreme. Very few think Kamala is reasonable and vote for Trump anyway.

However, there are signs NBC has missed the mark. They have 35% of voters (nationally) saying that democracy is their top issue, while only 32% pick the economy. That’s correct for all we know! Either Republicans have a very long night ahead, or we’ll be laughing at NBC tomorrow!

Stay tuned for some hard results presently.

18:01 (ET)

This is another surprise. Just as the candidates looked closer than expected on the right to life, so too with border security. Trump is up, but not by nearly as much as the polls suggested. Maybe NBC missed a trick?

17:58 (ET)

A counterpoint to the above: While the right to life is not a winning issue for the GOP right now, it isn’t as bad as it could be if NBC is right.

17:57 (ET)

Exit polls suggest that female turnout in this election is set to be high. According to The Telegraph, data shows women accounting for 53% of the vote, six points ahead of men, and one point up on the last election.

17:55 (ET)

First results are up in 7 minutes. Kentucky and Indiana. These are ruby-red states, and they are very white ones. If Trump has lost support among white voters, we may get an early indication!

17:50 (ET)

NBC EXIT POLL: Trump Favorability (shift from 2020)

White: 49% (-8)

Black: 14% (+4)

Latino: 42% (+4)

No bueno—looks like the NYT/Siena may be right. Trump improving among non-whites, but haemorrhaging support in the suburbs.

17:49 (ET)

Initial signs from polling stations across swing states point to a bumper voter turnout.

17:40 (ET)

According to The Financial Times, Fox News has defied the odds to dominate cable US election coverage. “During this election cycle, Americans have turned to Fox News more than any other service,” Fox chief executive Lachlan Murdoch claimed yesterday. In its most recent quarter, Fox News was the most popular US cable channel and the second-most watched network on all of US television.

17:32 (ET)

The Wall Street Journal has released an article on ‘Tips for Spotting Deepfakes Aimed at Disrupting Voting’. Voters are warned to be on the lookout for AI-based disinformation.

17:22 (ET)

Almost 60% of Harris voters cited “Democracy” as their chief concern in an NBC News exit poll. 20% said abortion was their most important issue. Meanwhile, 50% of Trump voters said they were most concerned about the economy.

17:16 (ET)

US stockmarkets close with large gains in anticipation of Trump win. 

17:04 (ET)

Reform UK leader Nigel Farage MP is enroute to Mar-a-Lago to join Donald Trump and Elon Musk’s election night watch party.

16:58 (ET)

Polymarket shows a spike in money backing Trump in Nevada, overtaking Harris and reversing the previous trend.

16:55 (ET)

The FBI have arrested a man in Michigan who threatened to commit a mass shooting if Donald Trump wins tonight’s election. 25-year-old Isaac Sissel, was arrested at a Canton Township hotel. According to an FBI affidavit, Sissel posted to Reddit accounts was named, “ShootUpTrumpRally”, “WillShootTrumpSoon,” “PlanningToShootTrump” and “PlanningToKillTrump”, and accessed the internet from the University of Michigan.

Sissel said that he believed that there would be violence during the election…and wouldn’t rule out joining Antifa to protest,” said FBI Special Agent Brett Mason. Sissel allegedly posted on Reddit, “I shall carry out an attack against conservative christian filth in the event trump wins the election…I have a stolen ar15 and a target I refused to name so I can continue to get away with my plans. Without a specific victim or ability to find the place I hid the gun, there’s not a thing the FBI can do until I complete the attack.” This follows two attempts on Trump’s life in the lead up to the election: in Butler, Pennsylvania, and at Trump International Golf Club in West Palm Beach, Florida.

16:39 (ET)

U.S. Capitol Police have arrested a man attempting to enter the Capitol building with flammable materials.

16:35 (ET)

Final HarrisX poll of 12,515 registered voters in 7 swing states projects Donald Trump to win 5 — with Kamala Harris claiming only Pennsylvania and Michigan. Wisconsin and North Carolina to be decided by narrow margins of 0.4 and 0.2 respectively.

16:33 (ET)

According to Forbes, betting markets are firmly in favour of Donald Trump to secure a second presidential term. In stark contrast, poll-based prediction models forecast a knife-edge contest.

16:30 (ET)

Fox News analyst John Roberts reports that Kamala Harris requires 700,000 votes in Pennsylvania to secure crucial swing-state Philadelphia In 2016, Hillary Clinton received 560,542 votes.

16:30 (ET)

In 2020, Joe Biden received 603,790 votes with record turnout Real Clear Polling averages put Trump at +0.4 in Philadelphia.

16:21 (ET)

Georgia on my mind. Of the swing states, polls will be first to close in the Peach State (19:00 EST / 00:00 GMT). It is expected that c.75% of the votes there will then be counted within the next two hours.

16:20 (ET)

Elon Musk has voted for Donald Trump in Cameron County, Texas, before flying to Florida to join him at his Mar-a-Lago residence.

16:17 (ET)

Google has acknowledged an issue with searches for “Where can I vote for Harris”, which produces an interactive map tool to find polling places, whereas the same map is not shown when searching “Where can I vote for Trump.”

This has been blamed on Harris also being a county in Texas; as searching for other locations also provides an interactive map.

Google have stated that they are working on a fix for this disparity.

16:12 (ET)

Kamala Harris appears to fake a phone call to a voter at a campaign event. When Harris removed the phone from her face, the camera app was open – and no call icon appears on the screen when paused.

16:09 (ET)

New York Governor Kathy Hochul has called Republican voters “anti-woman” and “un-American” Hochul’s administration has faced criticism in recent days for remaining silent on the seizure and killing of beloved pets Peanut the Squirrel and Fred the Raccoon.

15:55 (ET)

Ayaan Hirsi Ali: Voters tempted by Kamala’s faux compassion will be wise to look to Brits across the pond who recently put their misguided trust in Prime Minister Starmer’s soothing words. Kamala is a Keir in a woman’s suit.

15:50 (ET)

Polling station in Forks Township, Pennsylvania hit by reported power outage, according to @scrowder. Voters continue to wait in long lines to cast their ballot on election day.

15:38 (ET)

The New York Times reports that @elonmusk will be spending election night with Donald Trump at Mar-a-Lago, watching as the results roll in on X. Trump’s home state, Florida, shows a sizeable lead for Republicans in election-day voting.

15:27 (ET)

The Amish population in the battleground state of Pennsylvania is reported to be voting in record numbers, for Trump, in direct response to government overreach.

15:21 (ET)

BREAKING NEWS: A polling location in Northville, Michigan has been evacuated due to a gas leak.

15:12 (ET)

We start by checking in on the polling of 7 battleground swing states. Harris is up in 2 (Michigan and Wisconsin) but Trump is up in 5 (Arizona, Georgia, Nevada North Carolina, and Pennsylvania).

Harris narrowly defeated Trump 49.46% to 46.22% in Guam’s non-binding straw poll with all precincts reporting. Joe Biden defeated Trump by over 13 percentage points four years ago. Although the result doesn’t count toward the Electoral College, it has predicted the popular vote winner in every election since 2004.

14:30 (ET)

Welcome to Courage.Media’s hub for breaking news, insightful commentaries, and other exciting content as the American election results come in. Here, we’ll capture the latest developments, reactions from key figures, and moment-by-moment observations as the results draw closer. Stay tuned and refresh this page frequently for all the updates you need to stay on top of one of the most pivotal elections of our time.