Black men voted for Donald Trump in astonishing numbers in the 2024 presidential election. Some right-wing pundits— notably, Dr. Phil during his appearance on the Daily Wire’s election coverage— think that this is because minority demographics are “rejecting” the democratic party’s identity politics. This is nothing but wishful thinking.
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It’s true that black men have drifted to the right, but not to the extent that early exit polls on election night suggested (some showed a near-doubling in black men for Trump over his 2020 performance) Now that all of the votes have been counted, though, it turns out that black men only shifted towards Trump by two points compared to the previous election. Zooming in on only black men, however, misses the forest for the trees. Black women shifted to the left by two points, making them one-third as likely to vote for Trump as were black men. Overall, Trump won 21% of black men, but only 7% of black women. Thus, although Trump has gained popularity amongst black men compared to his performance in 2020, he has lost ground with black women. Similarly, Trump received votes from over half of hispanic male voters, but just 37% of hispanic women. Compared to his 2020 performance, Trump has gained over twice as much ground with hispanic men than with hispanic women.
To claim that this is a broad-scale rejection of identity politics is to miss that the conservative shift seems limited to men of color. Black men voting for Trump is a microcosm of the larger pattern of men overall becoming more aligned with the Republican Party and women identifying more with Democrats. This does not mean that identity politics are behind us, but rather that the importance of race has been usurped by gender. While men supported Trump and Biden in virtually equal numbers in 2020, Trump led with men by 13 points this time around.
Meanwhile, the Democrat presidential campaigns have deepened their already double-digit lead with women over the last two elections. This is an impactful example of the broader measures of political division between the sexes in America and around the developed world, according to pollsters like Daniel Cox.
The reason for the gender gap in the 2024 presidential race, particularly, may well be the revived importance of the abortion debate. In the wake of the Dobbs decision (which revoked Supreme Court protections on abortion access), abortion was an extremely important issue for half of Democrat voters this year. That figure has nearly doubled since 2024. Unsurprisingly, abortion was the top issue for young women’s votes. Amongst all voters, exit polls showed that abortion was listed as the top concern for only 14% of people. Naturally, young women, being more concerned about abortion, made up the most Democrat-leaning demographic in terms of sex and age. And, of course, Harris was the preferred candidate on the issue of abortion by over 20 points. Essentially, if you are a woman in America, you probably care a lot about abortion; if you’re primarily worried about abortion, you probably voted for Kamala.
On key issues beyond abortion, Kamala did not garner so much support. On border security and immigration, she trailed Trump by over 20 points. On inflation, the cost of living, and the economy, Trump had a lead of around 10 points. These issues were far more important for men and older voters—that is, those who aren’t as directly impacted by legislation around abortion. Amongst all voters, the economy was the most important issue, with abortion coming in ninth.
Meanwhile, racial tensions are becoming less salient for voters. In 2020, Gallup found that 66% of voters said that race relations were very- or extremely-important. In 2024, that figure dropped by 10 points. With issues like race relations becoming less relevant to people’s voting decisions, it makes sense that we would see less polarization along racial lines. At the same time, gender-specific issues have soared in importance— from 25% extremely important in 2020 to 37% this year. In this light, the voting discrepancy between the sexes should come as no surprise.
This shift towards a gender divide is evidenced in vivo by the “White Guys for Harris” and “I’m man enough to vote for a woman” ads that were run in the weeks before the election. We can look, too, to the coverage of Kamala’s noticeably-delayed concession speech to a crowd full of supporters wearing shirts emblazoned with slogans like “Black Women for Harris.” If people are buying merchandise like this, it means that these statements are meaningful to them. In other words, identity politics are alive and well.
Race was a crucial issue in the last election because it happened in the wake of George Floyd’s death and the 2020 summer race riots, drawing voters of color to the Left. In 2024, the overturning of Roe v. Wade is fresher in voters’ minds and most impactful for young women. To believe that we have moved beyond identity politics would be a fatal act of hubris for the Right. America is still divided on demographic-specific issues— these issues simply straddle new lines.
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